For 2016/17, ICCO now estimates raised production to 4.739 MMT and grind to 4.396 MMT, leaving add stocks nearly unchanged at 296,00 MT, carryout at 1.726 MMT. For 2017/18, cocoa production was raised 58,000 MT to 4.645 MMT, down 2 percent or 94,000 MT from 2016/17 output. The global grind was raised 37,000 MT to 4.568 MMT, up 172,000 MT or 3.9 percent from last season.
The 2017/18 surplus rose from 10,000 MT to 31,000 MT, which shifts the estimated carryout to 1.757 MMT, up 1.8 percent YoY. Stocks-to-grind is improved modestly to 38.5 percent, still down from 2016/17 stocks-to-grind of 39.3 percent.
World cocoa supply & demand
Source: ICCO, trade sources, McKeany-Flavell
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