ICCO has revised its estimates for world cocoa production and grind. For 2016/17, output was raised 15,000 MT and grind 50,000 MT, lowering the estimated surplus from 335,000 MT to 300,000 MT. As a result, carryout is now estimated at 1.725 MMT, pushing the stocks-to-grind ratio slightly lower to 39.2 percent.
For 2017/18, production is forecast 2.3 percent lower at 4.638 MMT, while world grind is expected to pick up 2.0 percent to 4.487 MMT, yielding a surplus of 105,000 MT. Carryout this season is thus expected to rise 6.1 percent to 1.830 MMT, pushing stocks-to-grind up to 30.8 percent. A lot could still happen to change the supply and demand landscape for this season. For 2016/17, for example, the surplus was estimated earlier in the season as low as 264,000 MT, rising later as high as 382,000 MT, then finally settling at the current estimate of 300,000 MT.
World cocoa supply & demand
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