The July heat wave in Europe is not expected to continue and may thus have a very limited impact on European wheat crops.
Although water usage restrictions have been imposed across French regions, harvest is already underway, limiting the potential for the wheat crop to wilt. According to Reuters, brokers stated French wheat yields have been very promising thus far. Harvest is also underway in Germany, the second largest producer in the EU, where yields are also reported to be equal to or better than expectations.
In Eastern Europe, the Ukraine harvest is more than halfway complete, and production could set a record as weather conditions throughout the growing season favored crop development. Romania also has reported a good harvest.
The Russian wheat crop could be the second largest crop in its history, but production will likely not be as high as previously anticipated. High temperatures may have taken a slight toll on yields, and this impact is expected to carry over to the export market as Russia is the largest wheat exporter in the world.
USDA lowered its 2018/19 world wheat ending stocks estimate by 1.42 MMT and lowered its 2019/20 ending stocks projection by 7.88 MMT in the July WASDE to 286.46 MMT.
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