Corn exports in April were up almost 10 percent from March, and total commitments as of Apr. 25 came to 46.7 MMT, or 88 percent of USDA’s forecast for 2023/24. The question is whether USDA will lower this season’s exports a little bit in the May WASDE or wait another month to make an adjustment.  

The next WASDE report, on May 10, is a big one as it will add the new marketing year, 2024/25, to the S&D balance sheet. Corn acreage is expected to be the 90.0 million acres estimated in the March Prospective Plantings report, while the initial yield estimate will likely be based on a weather-adjusted trend and therefore on the high side of recent actual yields. 

After closing Apr. 26 at a 15-month low of 19.09 cents, benchmark Jul-24 #11 world raw sugar recovered slightly, closing the week with quiet sessions, trading Friday near 19.27. Aug-24 #5 London white also traded sideways in the last three weeks, approaching resistance Friday at its 20-day average but looking to close below it at $571.70. Jul-24 #16 domestic raw tested fresh four-month lows just below 38.00 cents at the end of the week. 

Dollar weakness in recent sessions likely helped restrain bearishness for world sugar futures this week even with crude oil futures trading lower, below $78.50. A stronger Brazilian real may also be modestly supportive for prices; the outlook is still for a strong center-south sugar harvest. 

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Posted by: Information Services
Our Information Services team assists our clients with understanding commodity and ingredient market dynamics. Using our extensive database of intelligence, we also produce regular commodity and commercial market publications covering supply and demand fundamentals, news alerts on events that shape the markets, and resource guides to give you a complete picture of the industries we monitor.