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Spring Market Outlook
Wednesday, March 27, 2024

“Commodity bears” have awakened from their dens early this spring as grain and oilseed prices have dipped back down to multi-year lows. Can the pressure continue? How will planted acreage shake out this spring and what could new crop 2024/25 balance sheets look like? Nicole Thomas and Eric Thornton will discuss what is on the horizon for corn, the soy complex, and wheat.

Sugar, on the other hand, remains a challenging commodity to navigate. Not to fear! Kevin Combs will provide his analysis on the global and domestic market and check in on how price negotiations are shaking out for 2025.

Plan to attend our 2024 Spring Market Outlook webinar to hear our entire outlook on commodity markets heading into the spring growing season.

When: Wednesday, March 27, 2024 · 11:00 a.m. · PST
Duration: 1 hour

Register for the live webinar here.

Despite a bump in U.S. 2023/24 imports of TRQ sugar, cuts of 155,000 STRV beet sugar output and of 133,000 STRV in imports from Mexico pulled carryout down to 1.701 million STRV, a 13-year low. This pulled stocks-to-use to 13.4 percent, a possible four-year low and below USDA’s preferred target at or above 13.5 percent—suggesting that more actions may be needed to balance a market that is leaning so heavily on out-of-quota Tier-II imports. USDA now estimates Mexico’s 2023/24 crop at 4.747 MMT, down 9 percent YOY; this matches the updated official CNDSCA estimate but is stronger than most trade estimates, including our own forecasting.

The March WASDE was very quiet for grains and oilseeds. USDA didn’t change the U.S. corn balance sheet and kept adjustments to South American S&D at a minimum. For the U.S., we will probably see a more active April report, after the March quarterly stocks report provides a clearer picture of disappearance.

USDA didn’t change U.S. soybean supply and use in this month’s WASDE. Soybean oil ending stocks increased with a rise in beginning stocks. Food, feed and industrial use for the U.S. had been increased in February by 5 million pounds. The 2023/24 global outlook for soybeans is for lowered beginning stocks, production, crush, and ending stocks. Global soybean imports increased in the March WASDE. For South America, Argentina and Paraguay’s balance sheet remained unchanged while USDA made changes to the supply and use of Brazil’s soybeans.

In the March WASDE, USDA trimmed U.S. wheat exports by 15 million bushels to 710 million, down over 6 percent YOY. Domestic wheat output is still seen at 570 million bushels, down 15 percent YOY. USDA raised both world production and demand, cutting 2023/24 carryout by 610,000 MTthough world carryout lessened, China was actually raised by 390,000 MT.

This report summarizes a small sampling of the information available on our IQ Ingredient Intelligence platform. Further insights, statistics, analysis, and pricing information for these commodities and others are available to IQ subscribers.

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Posted by: Information Services
Our Information Services team assists our clients with understanding commodity and ingredient market dynamics. Using our extensive database of intelligence, we also produce regular commodity and commercial market publications covering supply and demand fundamentals, news alerts on events that shape the markets, and resource guides to give you a complete picture of the industries we monitor.