USDA sees domestic sugar supply slightly tighter, with stocks-to-use down slightly to 13.6 percent for 2023/24 and 11.5 percent for 2024/25. Beet output was cut 50,000 STRV for this season, and the new-crop cane forecast was cut 32,000. Sep-24 #16 domestic raw rallied this week to a four-week high but seemed reticent to test resistance above 38.00 (50-day moving average and upper Bollinger Band). Nearby Jul-24 #11 world raw rallied midweek, closing Thursday above its 20-day average; in Friday’s session, the contract looked to be consolidating near 19.50 cents. Light crude rallied to a two-week high of about $78.60 on Thursday but slipped below $78.00 in Friday’s trading, while the dollar index was trading at a six-week high, testing its upper Bollinger Band. 

The June WASDE was very quiet for corn: No adjustments for U.S. S&D and minimal changes for world corn. We should see more updates in the July WASDE because there will be updated acreage estimates. Despite the low-key report, the corn market rallied afterward, supported by domestic use that appears to be a bit higher than current USDA estimates suggest and a modest upturn in crude oil pricing. 

U.S. imports of refined palm and palm kernel oils were higher in April vs. March, but coconut oil imports were down sharply. Refined coconut oil disappearance remained well below average in April. USDA is estimating U.S. coconut oil consumption at 869 million pounds in 2023/24, the lowest level since 2004/05. 

Initial NOPA numbers were adjusted to correct Indiana’s numbers. Soybean crush was down because demand dropped as biofuel producers resorted to price competitive alternatives like used cooking oil, impacting margins.  The average of analysts’ expectations was for NOPA’s April 2024 crush to be about 183.1 million 

Cocoa futures are back on the high trend from May’s decline. ICCO raised its working deficit for 2023/24 to about 439,000MT due to poor crop conditions and low volume harvested in May. Rainfall has returned with some positive impact to what is left of the current season; however, production loss cannot be recovered with four months left to end the season. The new EU deforestation Regulation poses to be another challenge the cocoa producing countries will have to face for the next season.

For 2024/25, supply and exports are estimated higher, lowering the carryout forecast. All wheat U.S. output could reach 1.875 million bushels, a potential five-year high. Carryout is also seen lower globally on smaller crops from Russia, Ukraine, and elsewhere in Europe, though feed and residual use was also trimmed for the region. U.S. and EU exports may rise as Russia and Ukraine have lower exportable stocks. 

This report summarizes a small sampling of the information available on our IQ Ingredient Intelligence platform. Further insights, statistics, analysis, and pricing information for these commodities and others are available to IQ subscribers.

Learn more about becoming a subscriber.

Posted by: Information Services
Our Information Services team assists our clients with understanding commodity and ingredient market dynamics. Using our extensive database of intelligence, we also produce regular commodity and commercial market publications covering supply and demand fundamentals, news alerts on events that shape the markets, and resource guides to give you a complete picture of the industries we monitor.