After the January WASDE and grain stocks report confirmed 2023/24 U.S. corn supply is ample—stocks as of Dec. 1 were 12.2 billion bushels, the highest December stocks since 2017—market attention is on domestic use and South American production. This season’s comfortable stocks-to-use ratio of 15 percent could decline if Brazil is not able to export as much corn as currently forecast. But as of mid-January, corn basis bids were generally weaker than they have been in several years, and corn use for ethanol and exports was around expectations.
NOPA processors ended 2023 with record high soybean crush and soybean oil yield and stocks increased. U.S. soybean oil edible disappearance decreased in November 2023. Canola oilseed and oil are down both in the U.S. and Canada. U.S. canola oil production saw arise while imports slowed.
U.S. tropical oil disappearance dipped in November, especially coconut oil: Less than 35 million pounds of refined coconut oil were removed from stocks during the month. Jan-Nov imports of refined coconut oil were the lowest since 2010 despite lower pricing this year compared to last.
Quarterly grind numbers came out this week, meeting the expectations of the market. Asia, which has been registering the strongest growth rate, disappointed with declining grind values from Q4 2022. Western Europe grinds also fell in Q4 2023 from Q3 values. 2024 has begun with lowered demand forcocoa.
After their mid-December lows, #11 and #5 world sugar futures have rallied over the last month. Mar-24 contracts broke their upper Bollinger Bands this week reaching 23.57 for #11 and $663.60 for #5 Friday. Domestic Mar-24 #16 neared a six-week high, closing on Jan. 19 at 40.50. The dollar index consolidated near its own six-week highs at the end of this week. Crude oil futures remainwithin their two-month range.
This report summarizes a small sampling of the information available on our IQ Ingredient Intelligence platform. Further insights, statistics, analysis, and pricing information for these commodities and others are available to IQ subscribers.
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