The January WASDE delivered a bit of a surprise for 2023/24 corn and soybean ending stocks, which USDA increased contrary to market expectations ahead of the report. U.S. corn stocks are now pegged at 2.162 billion bushels, and soybeans stocks are estimated at 280 million. How long the added stocks will remain on the balance sheet is the question at hand now: Brazil’s corn and soybean export forecasts may be pinched by lower production figures in upcoming reports, for example, adding demand for U.S. supplies in the world market, and U.S. domestic use may be poised for stronger numbers as well.

South America’s soybean yield is expected to improve due to early-season rainfall in Argentina and ParaguayBrazil’s soybean production is lowered while global 2023/24 soybean production is increased. U.S. soybean production and ending stock are increased, above the average analysts’ expectations. USDA increased the forecast for U.S. soybean oil imports and biofuel use.

The forecast for rain in Ivory Coast impacted nearby NY cocoa earlier in the week, with cocoa hitting its lowest price in weeks. Though prices picked up in subsequent days, speculators’ reaction to liquidate bullish bets was rather impactful as price has somewhat adjusted.

USDA raised 2023/24 beet sugar and Louisiana cane sugar production by 44,000 STRV and 105,000 STRV, respectively. High-tier imports were raised 110,000 STRV, offset by cuts of 49,000 STRV for imports from Mexico and of 7,000 STRV for TRQ imports. Exports were raised again and carry-in trimmed slightly. The net result was a bump of 13,000 STRV in carryout, raising stocks-to-use nearly 1 point to 13.7 percent. Nearby Mar-24 #16 domestic sugar closed Friday at a four-week high of 39.21 cents.

This report summarizes a small sampling of the information available on our IQ Ingredient Intelligence platform. Further insights, statistics, analysis, and pricing information for these commodities and others are available to IQ subscribers.

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Posted by: Information Services
Our Information Services team assists our clients with understanding commodity and ingredient market dynamics. Using our extensive database of intelligence, we also produce regular commodity and commercial market publications covering supply and demand fundamentals, news alerts on events that shape the markets, and resource guides to give you a complete picture of the industries we monitor.