USDA made modest adjustments to projected 2023/24 U.S. grain and oilseed consumption in the February WASDE. Corn stocks were raised by 10 million bushels, to 2.172 billion, due to a decline in non-alcohol industrial use (corn use for ethanol still pegged at 5.375 billion bushels). 

Brazil’s 2023/24 corn production is now estimated at 124.0 million metric tons, down 3.0 MMT from last month’s forecast. USDA left Argentina’s production unchanged at 55.0 MMT. World ending stocks are currently expected to be around 322.1 MMT, down slightly from the January estimate but still up over 7 percent from last season. 

In the February WASDE, USDA reduced soybean exports for 2023/24 by 35 million bushels. Ending stocks were increased to 315 million bushels. The soybean oil balance remained unchanged from last month. 

World ending stocks for soybeans increased again at 116.03 MMT. Brazil’s 2023/24 soybean production is estimated to decline while beginning stocks and exports go up. Paraguay’s outlook for 2023/24 is small reductions in beginning and ending stocks. 

In February’s WASDE, USDA cut beet sugar production by about 80,000 STRV but surprisingly raised cane sugar production by about half that volume. Imports from Mexico were cut 123,000 STRV on a drop in Mexico’s forecast crop, now seen down nearly 7 percent. The lower beet production and Mexico imports were offset by a 140,000 STRV bump in high-tier imports and an unexpected drop of 75,000 STRV in domestic food use deliveries. Thus, instead of growing 0.4 percent YOY, domestic deliveries might instead fall 0.3 percent, a change that will presumably be backed by updated sugar deliveries reported for Q4 2023. 

The world market will continue to focus on the factors affecting the upcoming Brazilian center-south crop: weather and moisture, cane yield and sugar recovery, and the sugar share of cane crush. 

With further concerns over poor main crops and midcrop in West Africa, NY and London cocoa futures traded above $5,800 and £4,600 this week. If sustained, higher prices could spur further demand destruction already observed in 2023. The dollar is trading near two-month highs this week.

For world 2023/24 wheat supply, USDA raised forecast production by about 0.8 MMT and total demand by 1.1 MMT, and exports were raised by 1.2 MMT. Declines of 0.3 MMT for both Brazil and UK crops were offset by larger crops in the Middle East and Kazakhstan. World carryout was cut by 0.6 MMT to 259.4 MMT, down 4.3 percent YOY. USDA cut 2023/24 domestic wheat food use by 10 million bushels, raising carryout by that same volume. 

This report summarizes a small sampling of the in-depth WASDE analyses from our team of experts available on our IQ Ingredient Intelligence platform. Further insights, statistics, analysis, and pricing information for these commodities and others are available to IQ subscribers.

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Posted by: Information Services
Our Information Services team assists our clients with understanding commodity and ingredient market dynamics. Using our extensive database of intelligence, we also produce regular commodity and commercial market publications covering supply and demand fundamentals, news alerts on events that shape the markets, and resource guides to give you a complete picture of the industries we monitor.