The December 2023 WASDE balance sheet for corn remained unchanged from November’s numbers except for exports. USDA made an increase to the season’s corn exports by 25 million bushels from November’s 2.7 billion bushels, reflecting strong export sales and increasing ending stocks. The average analysts’ expectation for U.S. corn ending stocks was for higher ending stocks than USDA estimated. After the release of the WASDE report, the market was trading lower for corn.
USDA does not expect any change in the supply and use of soybeans as per the December WASDE; however, the average analyst expectation was for a slight decrease in the ending stocks of soybeans. There was also no change in the estimations for soybean oil in this season. Prior to the end of trade today, the nearby contracts for soybeans and soybean oil were trading lower than the previous day.
With Mexico’s 2023/24 sugar crop lowered once again in the December WASDE, further limiting its capacity to support U.S. import needs, USDA has been atypically responsive, upping imports, both actual—reallocating TRQ volumes, raising the forecast TRQ imports 163,000 STRV—and on paper—acknowledging the inevitable strength of high-tier imports this season. With Mexico imports seen 228,000 STRV below the previous estimate, all 2023/24 imports rose just 126,000 STRV, partly offset by a 65,000 STRV hike in exports. Estimated carryout rose 55,000 STRV, and STU rose 0.4 points to 12.8 percent, short of the 13.5 percent statutory target.
Analysts expect a reduction in Ivory Coast’s cumulative arrivals for cocoa this season. The flow of smuggling this year is reversed towards Ghana. Perhaps, the West African cocoa producers may have favorable weather to reduce their supply deficit.
2023/24 wheat production is still forecast up 10 percent or 162 million bushels YOY at 1.812 billion bushels—a three-year high but below the ten-year average near 1.92 billion bushels. USDA raised all U.S. exports by 25 million bushels to 725 million bushels, below the ten-year export average of 923 million bushels. U.S. carryout was also cut 25 million bushels to 659 million bushels, up 13 percent or 77 million bushels YOY. Forecast world wheat output was raised about 1.03 MMT; with feed demand up 1.1 MMT and adjustments to trade forecast, world carryout was cut 0.49 MMT to 258.20 MMT, down 4 percent YOY.
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