Benchmark world sugar futures approached two-month lows near 26 cents at the end of October, presumably supported by a rebound in the dollar index and crude oil prices that refused to bounce back despite announced OPEC+ production costs. Nearby domestic #16 fell to its lowest level since early September. Mexico sugar prices softened slightly on weaker consumption and higher imports, but exportable stocks will remain tight. In response, USTR reallocated raw TRQ volumes, a move that typically would arrive no earlier than April.
The price of cocoa continues to hike as supply grows tighter and demand for cocoa beans increases. Ivory Coast current arrivals are the lowest in the last five years and Nigeria may not be able to meet its fulfilment due to loss in harvest.
The December WASDE will be published next Friday, Dec. 8. With crop production pretty well understood at this point, markets are turning to the demand side of the balance sheet. For corn, export sales hint at a possible higher forecast to come for the category, although recent high sales to unknown destinations should be considered cautiously as they may end up reduced depending on how much Brazil’s crop is impacted by drought. December WASDE reports tend to be quiet, and over the last ten years half the reports did not adjust corn use at all.
The outlook for economy post-COVID in 2024 is for lower growth in the U.S. economy, as well as globally in general. The IMF is projecting a fall in real GDP in 2024. China’s economy is likely to see a decline in growth in 2024. World output may also be down while the Euro area may experience a recovery and a slight GDP growth.
This report summarizes a small sampling of the information available on our IQ Ingredient Intelligence platform. Further insights, statistics, analysis, and pricing information for these commodities and others are available to IQ subscribers.
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