Spot soybean futures rose 30 cents last week. New-crop soybean futures continued to hover near two-year lows. Soybean oil prices rose about 1.5 cents per pound last week.

Argentina’s low soybean crop projections are falling further. Abandoned acres could be historically high, above 5 million acres, and yield the lowest in nearly 50 years. USDA’s projection for 2022/23 stands at 27 MMT, but many outlets foresee a crop closer to 22 to 23 MMT.

U.S. planting progress remains ahead of five-year average: Soybeans 66 percent planted vs. 52 percent. Overall, the crop is off to a good start. Soybeans should be pushing 80 percent planted in next week’s crop progress update.

Palm oil prices closed higher for three consecutive days with worries about an impending EL Niño and dryness in southeast Asia.

NOAA’s May 22 update shows an 80 percent chance of El Niño by July/August and a 90 percent chance for an El Niño (potentially moderate to strong) lasting through the winter.

The full version of this commentary appeared on our IQ platform May 26, 2023. Further information, statistics, and pricing for the soy complex are available to IQ subscribers. Learn more about becoming a subscriber.

Posted by: Information Services
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