In the November WASDE, estimated 2021/22 U.S. corn yield was raised 0.5 bushels per acre (bpa) to 177.0 bpa, which would be the highest yield on record. With this improved yield, estimated new-crop production rose to 15.062 billion bushels, up 43 million bushels from the October forecast and a dozen bushels above industry expectations.

Favorable margins lifted U.S. corn use for ethanol by 50 million bushels to 5.250 billion bushels, lowering the corn ending stocks forecast to 1.493, down just 7 million bushels from the October forecast thanks to the bump in yield.

For U.S. soybeans, estimated 2021/22 yield was lowered by 0.3 bpa to 51.2 bpa, which knocked production down 23 million bushels to 4.425 billion bushels. Soybean exports were forecast at 2.050 billion bushels, down 40 million bushels from the October figure.

Reduced exports more than offset lower production, so USDA’s 2021/22 ending stocks forecast rose 40 million bushels to 340 million bushels, about two dozen million bushels below trade projections.

Corn & soybean yield by crop year

Source: USDA
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