In the September WASDE, 2021/22 U.S. corn yield was estimated at 176.3 bushels per acre (bpa), up 1.7 bpa from August and above the average industry estimate. USDA also raised its 2021/22 harvested area estimate by 600,000 acres to 85.1 million acres. Improved yield and acreage put estimated 2021/22 production at 14.996 billion bushels, up 246 million bushels from the August forecast.

Higher new-crop production (and carry-in) was partially offset by greater 2021/22 demand as both feed and export forecasts saw increases of 75 million bushels. Looking at 2020/21 demand, estimated corn used for ethanol was lowered 40 million bushels to 5.035 billion bushels, and exports were cut 30 million bushels to 2.745 million bushels.

Reduced demand in 2020/21 boosted ending stocks and thus 2021/22 carry-in by 70 million bushels to 1.187 billion bushels, above industry expectations. Despite rising demand, higher carry-in and production brought the 2021/22 ending stocks forecast to 1.408 billion bushels, up 166 million bushels from the August figure.

U.S. corn production & ending stocks by season

Source: USDA
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