In the May WASDE, 2021/22 corn production is forecast at 14.990 billion bushels on 91.1 million harvested acres and yield of 179.5 bushels per acre (bpa). Yield is in line with expectations, but the industry expected new-crop area and production to be higher. New-crop corn ending stocks are pegged well above industry expectations at 1.507 billion bushels, up 250 million bushels YOY.

USDA increased its corn export forecast for 2020/21 to 2.775 billion bushels, dropping 2020/21 ending stocks to 1.257 billion bushels, down 95 million bushels from the April forecast.

For soybeans, USDA forecasts 2021/22 production at 4.405 billion bushels, which is moderately below industry expectations. New-crop yield of 50.8 bpa, however, is in line with the industry estimate. Crushing for 2021/22 is pegged at a record 2.225 billion bushels. New-crop soybean ending stocks are forecast slightly above expectations at 140 million bushels.

In 2020/21, soybean ending stocks remain forecast at 120 million bushels with no changes to crush or exports.

U.S. corn production & ending stocks by season

Source: USDA
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