In the October WASDE, 2021/22 U.S. corn beginning stocks are estimated at 1.236 billion bushels, up 49 million bushels from September. Estimated 2021/22 corn yield is 176.5 bushels per acre (bpa), up 0.2 bpa from the previous estimate and above industry expectations. With improved yields, forecast production rose 23 million bushels to 15.019 billion bushels, which would be the second-largest crop on record.
U.S. domestic use in 2021/22 is seen 45 million bushels lower, as weaker feed demand more than offset an uptick in the food, seed, and residual category. U.S. corn exports are forecast at 2.500 billion bushels in 2021/22, up 25 million bushels from September but down 253 million bushels YOY.
Higher carry-in and production, along with lower domestic demand, raised 2021/22 ending stocks by an additional 92 million bushels to 1.500 billion bushels, well above the trade’s expectations for today’s report.