Last week’s trading activity was a mixed bag for the soy complex. Jan-22 soybean futures ended the week at $12.6775 per bushel, nearly identical with the week ending Dec. 3. Soybean meal closed at $366.80 per short ton, up $14.20 per ST over the week. Meanwhile, soybean oil futures fell by 7.2 percent during last week to close at $0.5369 per pound on Friday.
S&D and fundamental factors
The U.S. soybean balance sheet was unchanged in last Thursday’s WASDE, which kept ending stocks at 340 million bushels for 2021/22 and stocks-to-use at 7.8 percent. Global ending stocks were lowered by almost 2 MMT to 102 MMT as Chinese production was reduced by 2.6 MMT; global stocks-to-use dipped to 18.6 percent, down from 18.9 percent in 2020/21.
Weather, macro indicators, and news
EPA is proposing to retroactively reduce the biofuel mandate for 2020 and 2021 but has proposed 20.77 billion gallons in total for 2022. In terms of biomass-based diesel, the mandate was kept flat at 2.43 billion gallons for 2020 and 2021 and raised to 2.76 billion gallons for 2022. As such, estimated vegetable oil usage for 2022’s mandated production is estimated near 20.83 billion pounds. Soybean oil usually accounts for around 60 percent of feedstock.
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