In the October WASDE, 2020/21 corn harvested area was pegged at 82.5 million acres, down 1 million acres from the September WASDE estimate. This change and slightly lower yield dropped 2020/21 corn production to 14.722 billion bushels, which is 101 million bushels below the average analyst estimate but would still be the second-largest crop on record if realized.

For 2020/21 demand, the ethanol and feed categories were both lowered by 50 million bushels, while export demand was unchanged.

Ending stocks in 2020/21 are now forecast at 2.167 billion bushels, down 336 million bushels from the September estimate. Carryover from 2019/20 is down 258 million bushels from the September estimate, but 2019/20 production was unchanged.

For 2020/21 soybeans, yield was unchanged, but harvested area was lowered to 82.3 million acres, down 700,000 acres from the September estimate. This brought production down to 4.268 billion bushels, 45 million bushels lower than the September estimate.

Soybean export demand for 2020/21 was raised 75 million bushels to 2.200 billion bushels. Ending stocks were forecast at 290 million bushels in 2020/21, down 170 million bushels from the September estimate and down almost 45 percent YOY. If realized, this carryout would be a five-year low.

Corn & soybean harvested area by crop year

Source: USDA
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