Although the industry was expecting U.S. corn exports to fall in the December WASDE report, USDA left its estimate at 1.85 billion bushels. In fact, each U.S. corn supply and demand category was left unchanged on the report.

Internationally, however, 2019/20 world beginning stocks fell 0.83 MMT to 319.2 MMT. Beginning stocks rose very modestly in Russia, South Africa, Mexico, and the E.U. Those in Canada, Ukraine, and Southeast Asian countries fell most notably.

Perhaps the most significant change was increased Chinese production, which rose a 6.77 MMT to 260.77 MMT. On the other hand, Canadian production is expected to fall 0.6 MMT to 13.4 MMT.

Very slight changes were made to international feed demand, with China’s use rising 1 MMT to 189 MMT. Canada’s decrease of 0.2 MMT was offset by Mexico, whose feed use estimate rose to from 26.3 to 26.5 MMT.

These changes, namely greater Chinese production, led to 2019/20 world ending stocks rising 4.6 MMT to roughly 300.6 MMT. Excluding China, net ending stocks fell 1.17 MMT.

World, U.S., and China corn production by season

Source: USDA
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