USDA estimates sugar deliveries for food use shrank by half a percent in 2017/18 and as of last WASDE forecasts a 0.6 percent increase for that volume in 2018/19 at 12.125 million STRV. This volume is unchanged from forecasts in the previous months, though some in the trade had been expecting some tweaking.

As USDA is now effectively tasked with balancing the U.S. market at a 13.5 percent stocks-to-use ratio and as its forecasting can now dictate Mexican sugar quota volumes, USDA seems to be taking a cautious approach to its adjustments—yes, USDA is now even more conservative than it was in the past when it comes to adjusting sugar supply and demand estimates.

Though total deliveries for human use showed a 0.9 percent decline from October through December, adjusted deliveries through January were reported up 0.1 percent, making USDA’s forecast use growth seem more plausible.

Monthly domestic sugar deliveries for human use

Source: USDA, McKeany-Flavell
Posted by: Information Services
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