USDA shows caution in November U.S. grain adjustments
Today’s WASDE report delivered a few modest changes to the U.S. balance sheets for wheat, corn, and soybeans, leaving ending stocks a bit higher from the October estimate for corn and soybeans and slightly lower for wheat.
USDA tweaked 2022/23 wheat use for food (up 7 million bushels) and seed (down 2 million bushels), which lowered ending stocks by a net 5 million bushels, to 571 million. And that’s all they wrote for wheat in this quiet report.
Soybean yield was increased to 50.2 bushels per acre, which added 33 million bushels to 2022/23 production. Crush rose to 2.245 billion bushels, up 10 million from last month’s estimate, and USDA stashed about 2 million bushels in the residual category. The net effect on ending stocks was a bump up of 20 million bushels to 220 million, a bit higher than expectations, which were for ending stocks to increase about 10 million bushels from October’s number.
USDA did not adjust exports for soybeans or corn, which is not unusual for this early in the marketing year, but corn export sales and movement are notably slow; the market likely thought we’d see a somewhat lower export forecast in today’s report. USDA allocated most of the 35 million bushel increase in supply (due to higher yield) to the feed category, so 2022/23 ending stocks rose by just 10 million bushels, to 1.18 billion vs. the 1.21 billion anticipated.
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