Soy complex futures rocketed higher last Friday via support from today’s USDA acreage and stocks reports. May-23 soybean futures climbed 31 cents and Nov-23 futures rose 16 cents.

U.S. soybean stocks as of Mar. 1 were 1.685 billion bushels, lower than last year by 247 million or 13 percent. The number fell well below analysts’ average expectation of 1.742 billion.

May-23 soybean oil futures increased 112 points after weeks of perpetually falling prices. Oct-23 soybean oil futures also strengthened by 82 points.

The highly anticipated Prospective Plantings report was also released last Friday, pegging 2023 U.S. soybean plantings at 87.5 million acres—the same as USDA’s Ag Outlook Conference projection as well as eventual acreage for 2022. The average trade guess was near 88.3 million acres.

Some analysts in Argentina are now projecting this year’s soybean crop to be in the low 20s MMT, down by roughly 40 percent from 2021/22. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange is forecasting production at 25.0 MMT.

Bitter cold and a significant snowpack in the upper Midwest are likely to lead to widespread flooding when temperatures warm, expected for the second half of April. The forecast points towards a later planting season this year, with most activity taking place in May.

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Posted by: Information Services
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