Global oilseed trade is forecast to increase 1 percent due to soybean import demand offsetting lower rapeseed and sunflower seed imports. Slowing economic growth in China and the EU, growing domestic oilseed production, and South America’s continuing expansion of soybean-planted farmland are likely to pressure global soybean prices in the coming year. Opportunities for the U.S. to expand soybean exports and gain global market share may be limited by projected weaker soybean import growth in China and the EU, as well as Argentina’s recovery in output and a record-breaking crop forecast for Brazil. These factors may lead to stock building in the United States. Brazil soybean exports are projected at a record 96.5 MMT, accounting for 56 percent of global trade. Conversely, U.S. exports are forecast to decline to 53.7 MMT, leaving the U.S. at 31 percent market share.
China is projected to import 100.0 million tons of soybeans, a higher number of imports than the 70.0 MMT projected for the rest of the world combined. EU imports are projected to be relatively unchanged at 14.0 MMT. Rising domestic production of soybean, rapeseed, and sunflower seed in China and the EU, as well as continuing strong demand for imported rapeseed and sunflower seed and products are likely responsible for the projected weaker soybean import growth in both areas.
The full version of this commentary appeared on our IQ platform May 26, 2023. Further information, statistics, and forecasting for the oilseed market are available to IQ subscribers. Learn more about becoming a subscriber.
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