As of mid-November, through the second week of Mexico’s 2021/22 sugarcane campaign, six mills had begun crush. Save for cane tonnage, results to date are lagging CNDSCA forecasts; two mills began crush three and ten days late, respectively.
Caution: Early crop figures are not indicative of the outlook for the entire season. Weather to date has been favorable for the cane crop. The initial official production forecast is near 6.12 MMT, arguably optimistic. Our own forecast for the crop is currently near 6.07 MMT.
For October, CNDSCA pegged total sugar demand at 432,258 MT, up 21 percent YOY, with IMMEX volume of 28,208 MT, up 9 percent YOY, and apparent domestic consumption at 370,971 MT, up 14 percent YOY. Available carryout is seen at 602,484 MT, up 22 percent YOY. Despite this, reference prices for sugar have strengthened in the last week.
Exports in October were up strongly at 33,078 MT, including 29,102 MT exported to the U.S.