As a consequence of the current trade dispute, China is expected to reduce overall soybean imports. The government already adjusted its import forecast for the next crop year, starting in October, to 83.65 million metric tons (MMT), down from last month’s estimate of 93.85 MMT. Before the multiple rounds of tariffs were put in place, China had been expected to import over 100 MMT of soybeans.
Farmers have already adjusted their feed ratios to lower soybean meal use, and higher pork prices are expected to further curb demand. Finally, farms in several regions of China have reported African swine fever (ASF); if ASF is not contained, overall feed demand could be pressured further still.
U.S. soybean exports to China
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