Friday’s WASDE report was undoubtedly bearish, led by the unexpected hike in soybean ending stocks. Ahead of the report, analysts were projecting 2018/19 soybean yield to increase, with the average of expectations being around 49.8 bushels per acre (bpa). USDA’s much stronger increase to 51.6 bpa came as a surprise and took ending stocks to a record 785 million bushels. The soybean market’s bearish sentiment spilled over to corn, which seemed to have more neutral changes to its 2018/19 balance sheet.
USDA increased corn yield to 178.4 bpa, an expected but still sharp move. Analysts had been speculating that yield might be as high as 180 bpa.
U.S. soybean ending stocks