As of Oct. 22, Ukraine’s 2020/21 corn acreage was 52 percent harvested, yielding some 4.7 MT per hectare (107.7 bushels per acre), the lowest yield in eight seasons. That equates to around 13.1 MMT of corn collected so far, prompting Ukraine’s grain trader union, UGA, to estimate new-crop production at 30.0 MMT, down 6.5 MMT from USDA’s October WASDE estimate. Other private estimates are lower, from 26.0 MMT to 29.0 MMT, per APK Inform.

Ukrainian corn prices rose by some $20 per MT (51 cents per bushel) in the week ending Oct. 23, and an increasing number of defaults have been recorded on forward contracts.

Ukraine accounted for over 17 percent of global exports in 2019/20, and USDA forecast Ukrainian 2020/21 exports at 30.5 MMT. This export figure alone is above the recent production estimates and will likely be lowered in the November WASDE.

Historical U.S. & Ukrainian corn exports through September 2020

Source: Reuters
Posted by: Information Services
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