Thai sugar output gains help boost world 2017/18 supply
Through the end of March, Thailand’s sugar output breezed past 12.0 million metric tons (MMT) for the 2017/18 campaign to date. Previous output forecasts closer to 11.9 were perhaps too conservative given the favorable weather and higher planted area for this season. Our updated forecast for output is now at more than 12.7 MMT, an increase of more than a quarter from production in 2016/17. Production could beat that 12.7 MMT mark, if adverse weather does not interfere with the crush campaign. This may in turn allow exports to rise by a similar volume, perhaps as high as 9.5 MMT—if competition from other origins with sizable exportable surpluses, such as India, allow it. Thanks to its low production costs, Thailand will likely find buyers for most of its sugar, leaving add stocks of around 300,000 MT for the season. The bump in exports will help soften the blow of the country’s sweetened beverage tax.
A group of Cambodian growers is suing a Thai company, alleging an illegal expropriation of their land in 2008 and 2009, reports Reuters. The Thai sugar company holds that its actions were legal as part of concessions granted by the Cambodian government, which uses such policies to attract foreign investment.
Thailand sugar supply & demand history
Source: McKeany-Flavell, trades sources
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