Net 2023/24 corn export sales totaled just 1.32 MMT for the first two weeks of September as China continued to sit out of the market. Outstanding sales to China were 340,500 MT as of Sep. 14 vs. 3.1 MMT last year at this time. 

Sales to Mexico were stronger YOY, however, with 5.5 MMT on the books vs. 4.5 MMT a year ago. USDA is projecting that Mexico will import a total of 18 MMT of corn during 2023/24, up 3 percent from last season. In 2022/23, the U.S. supplied about 85 percent of Mexico’s total, so if that share holds in the current marketing year, eventual U.S. exports to Mexico could come to around 15.3 MMT, about average. 

The U.S. and Canada are challenging Mexico’s ban on imports of genetically modified white corn, but in the meantime, Mexico has imposed a 50 percent tariff on white corn imports to encourage domestic production. Both the ban and the tariff may violate terms of USMCA. The deadline to phase out imports of GM yellow corn for feed was removed from Mexico’s anti-GM corn decree back in February, but the threat of losing access to the U.S.’s top yellow corn destination remains a significant concern to the market. 

The full version of this commentary appeared on our IQ platform Sep. 21, 2023. Further information, statistics, and pricing for the corn market are available to IQ subscribers. Learn more about becoming a subscriber.

Posted by: Information Services
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