Regulators in Ivory Coast finally acted in response to lax sales of midcrop beans and building inventories in country. Midcrop beans tend to be smaller in size, have a higher shell-to-nib ratio, and are lower yielding. Given the decline in combined ratio and narrowing [...]
We estimate October-November Ivorian arrivals near 755,000 MT, up nearly 8% YOY. Ghana purchases may be below 300,000 MT, down about 9% YOY. As a result, total output for the period from the two countries may be near 1.05 MMT, up around 2% YOY. [...]
Commodity futures markets often exhibit what is known as carry structure or contango, which is the upward stairstep shape associated with the string of progressively later-dated futures contracts. Higher premiums are a function of the greater uncertainty that comes with time plus additional logistics, [...]
The 2020/21 main crops will begin in October and the cacao fruit needs enough moisture for proper pod growth and bean development. The summer months of June through August mark the tail end of the 2019/20 midcrop, and trees begin forming pods for the [...]
Ivory Coast exporters estimated cocoa bean port arrivals down 6.5 percent YOY at around 1.85 MMT from October through May. This is a shortfall of nearly 100,000 MT from the previous season. Ghana Cocobod purchases have also fallen behind last year’s pace, adding to [...]
Amid largely bearish updates on grind, potentially lower grind growth in 2019/20 could be at least partly matched by smaller West African cocoa crops. From October through April, we estimate cocoa arrivals could be down around 3 percent YOY from arrivals a year prior [...]
Light rains in West Africa should help tree condition, soil moisture, and pod setting and filling. Reports show atypically dry conditions overall, which is expected to further pressure the Ivorian midcrop, which could fall by an estimated 20 percent to 30 percent from the [...]
As we pass the midpoint of the main-crop season, cocoa bean arrivals at West African ports are starting to slow, losing some ground vs. January arrivals a year ago. Arrivals at major Ivorian ports were estimated at 60,000 MT in the most recent week, [...]
