Outlook for West Africa main crops; farmgate prices announced

Cocoa regulators in both Ghana and Ivory Coast have been warning for months of smaller 2021/22 crops as trees “rest” from bumper crops of the last two seasons—a phenomenon known as tree fatigue. A dry spring and harmattan season most likely pressured pod set [...]

First-quarter cocoa grinds showing signs of green shoots

The past year has been tough on everyone, and the confectionery industry has been no exception. Global cocoa grind, a measurement of confectionery demand, contracted nearly 3 percent in 2020, with many traditional routes to market such as impulse purchases and food service disrupted [...]

Midcrop discount undercuts LID premium across Ivory Coast

Regulators in Ivory Coast finally acted in response to lax sales of midcrop beans and building inventories in country. Midcrop beans tend to be smaller in size, have a higher shell-to-nib ratio, and are lower yielding. Given the decline in combined ratio and narrowing [...]

Updates on cocoa arrivals & weather for Ivory Coast

We estimate October-November Ivorian arrivals near 755,000 MT, up nearly 8% YOY. Ghana purchases may be below 300,000 MT, down about 9% YOY. As a result, total output for the period from the two countries may be near 1.05 MMT, up around 2% YOY. [...]

New York terminal squeeze escalates fight over LID

Commodity futures markets often exhibit what is known as carry structure or contango, which is the upward stairstep shape associated with the string of progressively later-dated futures contracts. Higher premiums are a function of the greater uncertainty that comes with time plus additional logistics, [...]

Poor precipitation in July & August could impact new main crop

The 2020/21 main crops will begin in October and the cacao fruit needs enough moisture for proper pod growth and bean development. The summer months of June through August mark the tail end of the 2019/20 midcrop, and trees begin forming pods for the [...]

Cumulative cocoa arrivals continue to lag

Ivory Coast exporters estimated cocoa bean port arrivals down 6.5 percent YOY at around 1.85 MMT from October through May. This is a shortfall of nearly 100,000 MT from the previous season. Ghana Cocobod purchases have also fallen behind last year’s pace, adding to [...]

Ivory Coast & Ghana cocoa figures estimated lower at end of April

Amid largely bearish updates on grind, potentially lower grind growth in 2019/20 could be at least partly matched by smaller West African cocoa crops. From October through April, we estimate cocoa arrivals could be down around 3 percent YOY from arrivals a year prior [...]

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