Updates on cocoa arrivals & weather for Ivory Coast

We estimate October-November Ivorian arrivals near 755,000 MT, up nearly 8% YOY. Ghana purchases may be below 300,000 MT, down about 9% YOY. As a result, total output for the period from the two countries may be near 1.05 MMT, up around 2% YOY. [...]

Cocoa prices fall ahead of Ivory Coast presidential election

Tensions are mounting a few days before the Ivory Coast presidential election. Despite the term limits outlined in the country’s new constitution, current incumbent President Ouattara is running for a third term despite protests and a campaign to boycott the election. The UN is [...]

Technicals signal cocoa futures are overbought

Commodity fund traders had accumulated a net short position in July amid poor Q2 grind results and the potential influence of COVID-19. Since bottoming out in early July, specs have covered these new shorts, and the market has recovered along with other soft commodities [...]

Ivory Coast updates: Will Gbagbo run? Will Ouattara?

Former Ivorian president Laurent Gbagbo has applied for a passport so he can visit Ivory Coast, according to a statement by his lawyer reported by CGTN. Gbagbo, ousted after refusing to recognize an election won by current president Alassane Ouattara in 2010, was acquitted [...]

Ivory Coast Prime Minister’s passing causing concern for upcoming election

The passing of Prime Minister Amadou Gon Coulibaly at age 61 heightens the volatility and uncertainty surrounding Ivory Coast’s presidential election in October. Gon Coulibaly was the presumed successor of the current ruling party and President Alassane Outtara—once Ouattara announced that he wouldn’t be [...]

Technical bull trap in the making for cocoa?

After finding a market bottom in Q1 at $2,200 per MT, cocoa futures have been consolidating; a double bottom held, and prices rose by 10 percent. Although the fundamentals have been less inspiring with lackluster Q1 grind results, the market looks technically vulnerable to [...]