A few seasons into the implementation of a Living Income Differential (LID), Ghana and Ivory Coast have seen mixed results for premiums collected on bean sales. Despite some success for the LID in raising farmer income and improving livelihoods, country officials have at times [...]
The latest estimate from International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) showed a 174,000 MT deficit in the 2021/22 season, little changed from their previous forecast of a 181,000 MT shortfall, partly the result of a weaker grind forecast, which may be reflected in Q2 grind numbers [...]
This year’s harmattan or dry season across West Africa has been particularly dry in recent months. Poor rains have hurt the tree canopy and raised concerns over pod development for the upcoming midcrop. As soil moisture drops, stress increases on cocoa trees, causing leaves [...]
Four months into the West African main crop, cumulative tallies from both Ivory Coast and Ghana are telling two very different stories. Cocobod announced this past week that Ghana cocoa arrivals trailed last year by 44 percent, down nearly 300,000 MT year on year. [...]
Cocoa regulators in both Ghana and Ivory Coast have been warning for months of smaller 2021/22 crops as trees “rest” from bumper crops of the last two seasons—a phenomenon known as tree fatigue. A dry spring and harmattan season most likely pressured pod set [...]
Government officials are blaming lack of rain and low reservoir levels used to feed hydroelectric power plants as the cause for rolling blackouts across the country. Major port cities like Abidjan that are the industrial engines in the country and major centers of population, [...]
We estimate October-November Ivorian arrivals near 755,000 MT, up nearly 8% YOY. Ghana purchases may be below 300,000 MT, down about 9% YOY. As a result, total output for the period from the two countries may be near 1.05 MMT, up around 2% YOY. [...]
Commodity futures markets often exhibit what is known as carry structure or contango, which is the upward stairstep shape associated with the string of progressively later-dated futures contracts. Higher premiums are a function of the greater uncertainty that comes with time plus additional logistics, [...]
