National herd climbs while dairy stocks in cold storage fall

The shortened Thanksgiving holiday week brought mostly good news for buyers of dairy products. USDA’s November milk production report showed total heifers in the U.S. rising to a 12-month high of 9418 million head. As we had forecast, herd levels are now up from [...]

Fueled by unsustainable high dairy product prices, herd continues to grow

Monday’s USDA milk production reports for August showed an abundance of milk and dairy cows for the market to absorb. Not only were the previous month’s figures revised higher, but the August total showed continued growth in the herd, with over 11,000 heifers more [...]

Dairy prices finally acting rationally?

After a solid rally and underreporting of herd statistics in the first half of the year, corrections in USDA cow numbers, solid inventories of dried powder, and waning demand are finally bringing welcome relief to overheated dairy markets. We previously addressed the systemic underreporting [...]

USDA March milk production report finally shows increase in herd

After eight months of contraction, the national herd finally showed signs of life and an increase of 3,000 head at the end of February. Hopefully this marks the end of the period of culling as farmers are gearing up for spring flush and improvements [...]

Butter stocks rise, herd does not….

In a proverbial good news/bad news sense, the dairy market received updates from USDA on both stocks of dairy products in cold storage as well as an update on the total herd across the country this past week. Last Tuesday, USDA’s cold storage report [...]

Dairy market jittery ahead of key USDA monthly reports

Valentine’s Day must have fanned the flames of dairy bulls as the Fonterra Global Dairy Trade auction registered its third consecutive hike in prices. The Feb. 15 event saw prices rise across all product categories with a cumulative growth of 4.2 percent. Core products [...]

June sees trio of bearish results for dairy complex

The inevitable flood of milk resulting from both a larger herd and peak milk production of spring flush finally appears to be weighing on the minds of dairy producers. The latest Global Dairy Trade auction results fell for the fifth-straight time, making the largest move [...]

Butter stocks surge as milk supply grows

Two major news releases from USDA on Tuesday, Feb.23, prompted a counterintuitive market reaction as prices firmed toward the end of the week. The Cold Storage Report showed AA salted butter stocks at 328 million pounds through January 2021. To put that in perspective, [...]

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