New York terminal squeeze escalates fight over LID

Commodity futures markets often exhibit what is known as carry structure or contango, which is the upward stairstep shape associated with the string of progressively later-dated futures contracts. Higher premiums are a function of the greater uncertainty that comes with time plus additional logistics, [...]

Will Ivory Coast political instability add support for cocoa futures?

As a group, international observers have not been shy about their concerns over Ivory Coast’s political stability ahead of the country’s presidential election. Ivory Coast saw civil wars in 2002 and 2011, and now the question is whether a third civil war could be triggered [...]

Ivory Coast Prime Minister’s passing causing concern for upcoming election

The passing of Prime Minister Amadou Gon Coulibaly at age 61 heightens the volatility and uncertainty surrounding Ivory Coast’s presidential election in October. Gon Coulibaly was the presumed successor of the current ruling party and President Alassane Outtara—once Ouattara announced that he wouldn’t be [...]

Technical bull trap in the making for cocoa?

After finding a market bottom in Q1 at $2,200 per MT, cocoa futures have been consolidating; a double bottom held, and prices rose by 10 percent. Although the fundamentals have been less inspiring with lackluster Q1 grind results, the market looks technically vulnerable to [...]

Fresh highs for cocoa, ignoring bearish grind numbers

Cocoa futures surged nearby or above $2,800 MT to multiyear high after this week’s release of somewhat anemic Q4 grind numbers. Trade was waiting to see whether Q3’s grind numbers were a one-off or whether softness is continuing to creep into the cocoa demand. [...]

Specs selling cocoa, going short—time to buy?

Cocoa futures have remained under pressure most of August as speculators fully liquidated their entire net long position and swung net short in CFTC commitments of traders reports these past two weeks. Specs may now be attempting to accumulate a short position and push [...]

Cocoa speculative bubble: Too much, too fast?

Fund buying has dominated the cocoa futures market the past two weeks, sending prices to their highest level in months. Fundamentally speaking, there does not seem to be enough fuel to have sparked the $200 rally and keen interest coming from the speculative community. [...]

Load More Posts