USDA’s Sugar Outlook is forecasting 2023/24 carryout at a three-year low—still above carryout in 2019/20, a nine-year low.

This early 2023/24 outlook assumes a rebound in beet production based on historical averages of processing yields and pile shrink and on beet acres lost with the closure of the Sidney Sugar beet plant in Montana. Beet sugar output, in this case, would be an optimistic six-year high.

With modest gains across cane-growing states, cane sugar production is forecast to be up significantly, assuming no lasting impact from prior weather events. That forecast for cane sugar would be the largest crop in decades.

Sugar deliveries for food use are estimated up in line with population growth. Total imports were estimated at a three-year low.

USDA will publish its first WASDE 2023/24 forecast in May, incorporating updated carry-in and deliveries figures and key data on spring plantings. For now, this early outlook highlights the tightness of the market—naturally, if crop gains are not realized next season, the U.S. will rely further on imports, particularly those from major supplier Mexico.

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Posted by: Information Services
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