Bullish traders tried this week to retrace last week’s decline, but in the end there was no enthusiasm for values much above $13.60 for the most-active Nov-21 contract. Friday, November futures lost 28.5 cents to settle at $13.4925, below the 20-day moving average.
Dec-21 soybean oil futures are still finding support around the 20-day average, with resistance around 65 cents.
S&D and fundamental factors
The soybean crop was rated 58 percent good to excellent, down 2 points from last week as continued dryness over much of the Grain Belt is beginning to stress crops.
Concerns are mounting about the ability to reach the current yield estimate of 50.8 bushels per acre as we enter August, the critical month for soybean pod setting and filling.
Weather, macro indicators, and news
Spec interest in soybeans has seen some significant liquidation over the last two months, with the net long position falling to just under 100,000 contracts after reaching an all-time high of 271,000 contracts back in October 2020. A big question moving forward: Will we see renewed spec interest in the soybean and grain markets?
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