NASS’s quarterly Grain Stocks report surprised the market last week. This report typically does not result in dramatic swings, but we saw just the opposite for corn and soybeans.
Soybean ending stocks for Sep. 1 shrank more than anticipated in the report, with the market estimate at 575 million bushels vs. 523 million bushels published by USDA on Wednesday. This will be shown on Friday’s WASDE report as the beginning stocks for 2020/21. The impact to futures was a 30-point jump on by close, virtually erasing all the losses since Sep. 18. Prior to Wednesday, futures had come down 50 cents from the $10.43 high back two weeks ago.
Exports may also be a factor in the WASDE, as an upward revision is expected. Such a move would further tighten the balance sheet for 2020/21 and help to keep pricing elevated even though we are experiencing solid harvest progress on a big crop.
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