After a 16-cent rally last Monday, soybean futures were quiet the rest of the week and traded virtually unchanged around $12.47 per bushel (Jan-22 futures).
S&D and fundamental factors
Soybean export shipments the week ending Oct. 21 were very strong at 88.4 million bushels, more than double the pace needed to reach USDA’s target of 2.090 billion bushels. (This pace naturally peters out, though: U.S. exports are strongest during the first half of the marketing year; in February, Chinese demand shifts to Brazil.)
Soybean planting in Brazil continues at a blistering pace compared to last year’s record slow start. Brazilian soybeans were 38 percent planted as of last Monday and are likely to be near 50 percent planted this week. The early start could result in an early harvest and Brazilian soybeans getting to the export market earlier than usual, which would allow for China to pivot from the U.S. to Brazil sooner.
Weather, macro indicators, and news
The U.S. economy underperformed in Q3 with labor and Delta variant issues straining supply chains. GDP increased at 2 percent compared to 6.7 percent in the second quarter.
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