Mar-21 soybeans ended at $13.70 per bushel last week after recovering from the previous week’s speculative selloff. News of additional soybean purchases trumped reports of favorable weather in South America as demand is moving to the forefront of market-driving factors.
Soybean harvest should be fully underway for early planted soybeans in Brazil in the next couple of weeks. Ironically, a crop that likely suffered from low precipitation during the growing season is now seeing its harvest hindered by too much rain in some regions.
Despite recent soybean cargo cancellations for unknown destinations—likely Chinese hedges against a delayed harvest in South America—cumulative U.S. soybean sales are still approaching 95 percent of the current USDA projection of 2.23 billion bushels. Another 25 to 50 million bushels of demand for that category doesn’t appear out of the question—hence the market’s belief that USDA’s projection of 2020/21 soybean ending stocks could drop further.