Selling into weakness at decade lows is seldom a winning strategy
The #11 world sugar market has trended lower throughout most of 2019. The bears have been chasing a surplus crop in India as well as lower quality stocks of Thai raw exports that have caused weakness in nearby tape. Compounding the move lower, speculative funds have been consistently extending short positions.
As recently as late June, the CFTC net spec position was basically squared up and flat. However, the past two and half months have seen accelerated selling pressure coming from the spec community, and now cumulative net shorts stand at -164,105 total shorts, the shortest position ever held by funds. To put this in perspective, they now hold a record 17 percent short position as a share of total open interest.
Weekly #11 world sugar futures & managed money shorts
Source: DTN, CFTC, McKeany-Flavell
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