Russian invasion of Ukraine roils markets, including the soy complex
Mar-22 soybeans closed last week at $15.9025 per bushel on Friday but not before touching a high of $17.65 per bushel on Thursday—a record high for a March soybean contract.
Mar-22 soybean oil futures surpassed last year’s high, reaching $0.7472 in Thursday’s trading before closing at $0.7200 per pound. The contract closed the week at $0.6875 per pound.
S&D and fundamental factors
USDA released its first expectations for the 2022/23 soybean crop during its Ag Outlook Forum last week, pegging soybean acreage at 88 million, relatively flat from last year. Yield is projected at 51.5 bushels per acre, putting total production around 4.49 billion.
Weather, macro indicators, and news
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was the major market mover last week, sending futures prices for all commodities soaring. Of most relevance to the soy complex, concerns about the impact on corn and sunflower oil exports offer support to soybeans and soybean oil. Given the global vegetable oil market may remain tight for the foreseeable future, prospects of additional obstacles to oil supply will likely keep soybean oil futures supported while the invasion continues.
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