Pro Farmer crop tour hints at ominous 2022/23 corn production
Bolstered by concerns about the upcoming crop, Sep-22 corn futures on Friday, Aug. 25, ended the week up by more than $0.35 at $6.6875 per bushel.
Dec-22 futures closed similarly higher at $6.6475 per bushel.
S&D and fundamental factors
The Pro Farmer crop tour has informally confirmed that yields are trending lower in much of the Corn Belt, where drought at worst/erratic weather at best has hindered development. South Dakota yields are projected 22 percent lower than last year; Nebraska, Ohio, and Indiana are projected lower by 13 percent, 6 percent, and 8 percent, respectively. Minnesota may buck the trend, with the tour estimating a 7.3 percent yield increase YOY. Meanwhile, Iowa is pegged at 184 bushels per acre, down 4 percent from last year.
Weather, macro indicators, and news
Purported issues with China’s crop this year have analysts wondering if low production will offset any potential decline in demand there for 2022/23. If so, U.S. export demand may be consistent with 2021/22.
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