Looking at the pre-WASDE trade estimates via Bloomberg, the industry is expecting the new-crop U.S. corn production forecasts to drop to 15.917 billion bushels, down 78 million bushels from the May forecast.
The expected drop in 2020/21 corn production is likely due to revised planted acreage in North Dakota, which is currently at over 455 million acres, but many farmers there likely filed for prevented planting.
The average industry estimates for 2019/20 corn ending stocks is 2.163 billion bushels, up 65 million bushels from the May WASDE. For 2020/21 ending stocks, the average estimate is nearly 3.356 million bushels, 38 million bushels higher than USDA’s last forecast.
Brazilian corn production for 2019/20 is estimated to fall to 99.5 MMT, 1.5 MMT lower than USDA’s current estimate, while Argentine production is expected to remain at about 50.7 MMT.
Export demand for 2019/20, at 1.775 billion bushels, may need to be adjusted lower before the end of the market year. Corn exports would need to average 47 million bushels over the remaining 13 weeks in the season, a lofty goal.
U.S. corn harvested acreage & yield by season
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