Some bullish notes for corn include USDA estimating 2020/21 prevented planting at just under 5.4 million acres, which may mean lower harvested acreage in the September WASDE. The recent derecho storm is another bullish factor that may also pressure harvested acreage and yields in Iowa, the nation’s top corn-producing state.
Given that some in the industry expected a U.S. yield closer to 184 or 185 bushels per acre (bpa) before the derecho, the storm’s impact on yield may end up supporting USDA’s yield estimate of 181.3 bpa.
The storm likely destroyed anywhere between 100 million and 300 million bushels of corn between on-farm stocks and new-crop fields. This is notably bullish, but the 2020/21 crop is still likely to be either the largest or second largest crop on record, keeping bearish pressure on futures.
Other bearish insights from the trade include the thought that ethanol and feed demand in 2020/21 may be overstated as demand disruptions related to the pandemic may linger into next season.
U.S. corn feed & ethanol demand by season
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