As of the end of November, ISMA estimated India’s 2021/22 sugar production near 4.72 MMT, up about 9.7 percent from cumulative production a year ago of 4.30 MMT. We currently forecast all 2021/22 output near 33.4 MMT, up about 1 percent YOY.

As a reminder, early harvest figures are not necessarily indicative of the final crop’s size. Disruptions in harvest and crushing operations can have an outsize effect on production when relatively few plants or regions are active. As of the end of November, 416 mills were operating in India vs. 409 plants a year ago.

India cumulative sugar production

Source: ISMA, McKeany-Flavell

For the crop year to date, production is down 18 percent YOY in Uttar Pradesh but up 29 percent in Maharashtra, up 15 percent in Karnataka, and up half a percent in Gujarat.

In November, wholesale pricing in India averaged about 39.16 rupees per kg ($515 per MT), up about 6.4 percent YOY. At the start of December, pricing is down about 1 percent from the November average.

Posted by: Information Services
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