The updated wheat plantings estimate came in with fewer acres, now projected at 49.6 million acres vs. 49.9 million in the Mar. 31 planting intentions report, the revisions were not a surprise and, overall, are largely neutral to the wheat markets. All wheat classes saw changes:
Estimated winter wheat acres fell 500,000 to now 37.7 million total. This is perhaps slightly below expectations, which will not help production and stocks scenarios for hard red winter HRW) wheat, expected to see 300,000 fewer acres.
Hard red spring wheat acres were certainly at risk of a downward revision given North Dakota was extremely wet and cold until late May. The crop is seen with just 550,000 fewer acres at 10.5 million total acres, not overly concerning.
Durum wheat saw a fairly steep revision lower of 300,000 acres vs. the Mar. 31 estimate to now 1.48 million acres. Acreage is down in Montana and North Dakota by a combined 100,000 acres. vs. 2022.
Total other spring wheat plantings surprised a bit with an increase to above 11.1 million acres, up 305,000 acres vs. 2022.
The full version of this commentary appeared on our IQ platform Jun. 30, 2023. Further information, statistics, and pricing for the wheat market are available to IQ subscribers.Learn more about becoming a subscriber.
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