In a short-term rally, benchmark May-22 NY cocoa reached a three-week high of $2,683 last week. The contract fell from last Friday to this Tuesday to two-week low of $2,522, testing but failing to close below the lower Bollinger Band and psychological and retracement support near $2,500. The contract rebounded slightly in an inside session Wednesday.

RSI is neutral. MACD attempted but rejected a bullish crossover and is now modestly bearish. The stochastic saw a bearish crossover.

In the last reported week, noncommercials trimmed both longs and shorts in NY cocoa, raising net noncommercial length from a four-week high seen in the week prior.

May-22 London cocoa rose to a three-week high last week above £1,800 after a short-term rally, giving back most of its gains in the last four sessions to reach a nine-session low Wednesday. The stochastic saw a bearish crossover, and MACD may follow suit.

Despite reports of poor rains, recent estimates suggest that Ivorian cocoa arrivals are close to matching last year’s pace. If the recent trend continues, main-crop arrivals could surpass last year’s pace.

May-22 NY cocoa

Source: DTN
Posted by: Information Services
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