May-22 soybean futures closed last week at $16.89 per bushel, up by more than $1 per bushel from the week before.
S&D and fundamental factors
USDA’s WASDE release on Friday pegged domestic soybean stocks for 2021/22 at 260 million bushels, lower by 25 million from the March report and putting the balance sheet in an eerily similar situation to last year. Stocks were reduced by an increase to export demand, now estimated at 2.115 billion bushels. Following the increased projection, cumulative soybean export commitments currently sit at about 97.5 percent of the total.
Soybean oil stocks are now projected at 1.976 billion for the current marketing year, down 100 million pounds from last month’s report and 155 million from 2020/21. The sole change to the balance sheet was a comparable increase to export demand, now projected at 1.725 billion pounds and surpassing last year’s consumption for that category. Total commitments for soybean oil exports in 2021/22 stand at over 81 percent of USDA’s most recent revision.
Weather, macro indicators, and news
A frost event in Argentina is feared to have created leaf damage for some late-season crops, including soybeans. Damage is still being assessed.
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