In the July WASDE, U.S. corn feed demand and ethanol demand in 2019/20 were lowered by 100 million bushels and 50 million bushels, respectively. Lower demand in 2019/20 lifted ending stocks to nearly 2.25 billion bushels, up 145 million bushels from the June estimate.
For 2020/21, feed demand was lowered by 200 million bushels, but food, seed, and industrial use rose by 25 million bushels for a net demand loss of 175 million bushels. Ending stocks were lowered by 675 million bushels to about 2.65 billion bushels. This drop is mostly due to lower new-crop acreage estimates and consequently lower production.
Although some in the industry have been skeptical of the 2019/20 export forecast of 1.775 billion bushels, USDA left it unchanged. A few hours before the WASDE release, USDA announced corn export sales of 1.365 MMT (53.7 million bushels) to China, with delivery to be divided between this season and next season. This would be China’s second largest daily corn purchase on record.
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