The most interesting changes to the USDA supply and demand estimates this month were increases in imports and the follow up on lowered food use deliveries. USDA raised 2022/23 imports by 159,000 STRV on program imports being raised 75,000—after a cut of 125,000 STRV last month—based on large inflows in July. Imports from Mexico were raised 43,000 STRV as sizable imports into Mexico are boosting stocks available for its own exports. High-tier imports were also raised 40,000 STRV to 390,000 STRV, matching its 2021/22 total. 

After lowering domestic deliveries for food use by 75,000 STRV last month, USDA lowered deliveries an additional 25,000 STRV this month. Deliveries are still forecast up 0.8 percent YOY, while deliveries from domestic processors are down about 1.0 percent YOY through June. USDA cited two reasons for not lowering deliveries further: First, some sources believe cane deliveries could regain momentum in Q3, when deliveries are typically strongest, and second, imports of refined sugar under high-tier tariff could augment direct consumption use as these could be a lower-price alternative to strong spot prices. 

With a small 11,000 STRV cut to beet production, the 2022/23 ending stocks estimate was raised 173,000 STRV, boosting stocks-to-use (STU) 1.4 points to 15.8 percent. 

The full version of this commentary appeared on our IQ platform Aug 11, 2023. Further information, statistics, and pricing for the sugar market are available to IQ subscribers. Learn more about becoming a subscriber.

Posted by: Information Services
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